Goldman Sachs model now points to 4% second-quarter GDP growth


The U.S. economy is likely growing faster than expected, according to an economic model from Goldman Sachs.

The firm raised its second-quarter GDP tracking model growth forecast to 4 percent from 3.9 percent on Friday, citing strong manufacturing economic data. The model incorporates the latest monthly economic releases to produce a GDP growth estimate.

“The Empire State manufacturing index unexpectedly strengthened in June, and the underlying composition similarly firmed with strength in all three key components,” Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, said in a note to clients Friday. “In fact, given the firmer pace of utilities output, we boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate.”

Hatzius noted the Empire State manufacturing index rose by 4.9 points to 25 in June versus expectations for a “moderate decline.” The tracking number is different from the firm’s official economic forecast.

The CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid GDP Update reported economists’ estimates of tracking GDP show average growth of 3.8 percent after Thursday’s retail sales report.

Jobless claims also surprised economists Thursday, falling 4,000 to a near 44½-year low of 218,000, signaling an economy at full employment.

— CNBC’s Patti Domm and Michael Bloom contributed to this report



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