Goldman Sachs predicts what a US-China trade deal would look like


Going forward, the process to reach a trade deal could take place in three phases, Goldman said.

Most immediately, U.S. and Chinese officials are likely to continue meeting over the next few weeks to work out differences on the outstanding issues.

The second phase will likely result in a Trump-Xi meeting in late March where unresolved issues are ironed out, said the investment bank.

If the Florida meeting takes place, Goldman predicts there would be a 75 percent probability that the two presidents announce a formal agreement of some kind.

The ongoing negotiations have included thorny issues between both countries, such as enforcing punishment for intellectual property theft, technology transfer and structural reforms related to trade and economic policies.

“That said, we expect that whatever is agreed at that point will lack specifics in many areas and that additional technical work will still need to be done after the presidential meeting takes places,” it said in the report.

The third phase — which would be the most unclear in terms of outcome — is enforcement of the agreement, where the issue of tariff rates will raise some uncertainty, said Goldman Sachs in its report.



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